The current World Bank thresholds for Upper Middle and High income ($ 4255 and $ 13205 per capita) have been used for comparisons. Some other analysts also see India growing at this rate. The higher growth rate of 5.9% is used for the baseline projections. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) data shows that average nominal GDP growth over this period was 10.6%, with the average GDP deflator at 5.1%, yielding a real average growth rate of 5.5% which is slightly lower than the GDP growth in current US dollars. The baseline growth rate is the last decadal average (2011/12 to 2021-22) which is 5.9 % in current international dollars according to the IMF World Economic Outlook database. These forward-looking trajectories are derived from Excel Spreadsheet simulations using the last decadal (2011/12 to 2021/22) observed data as the baseline. This is the optimal growth scenario with which comparisons with China could possibly be made. Finally, there is what might be called the optimal growth trajectory that the Indian economy has achieved in the past, but might find it difficult to sustain over an extended period going forward. Secondly, there is a higher growth trajectory that might be achieved through good policy, leadership and institutional integrity. There is, firstly, the default business as usual scenario, where the economy trudges along on its present growth path. One can conceive of three possible scenarios. It concludes that this is possible only well after this mid-century and is contingent on decisive and determined policy interventions and good leadership, and ruminates on four caveats regarding its overall growth environment.Īlso read: Mainstream Interpretation of India’s GDP Growth Data Misses the Woods for the Trees The article makes forward-looking projections of three possible trajectories based on different assumptions – baseline, higher growth and optimism. Going forward, can India shed its perpetual ‘country of the future’ image and become a developed economy? How might it be expected to grow relative to China? China has, however, left India far behind. Its growth accelerated after 1990, along with that of China. India, like Brazil, has long been a rising power, a country of the future.
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